Department of Environmental Monitoring, Planning and Management

ASSESSMENT OF THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND LAND USE CHANGES ON KIPKUNURR FOREST AND ITS SURROUNDINGS, ELGEYO MARAKWET COUNTY, KENYA

2026-06-08T07:45:51Z

ASSESSMENT OF THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND LAND USE CHANGES ON KIPKUNURR FOREST AND ITS SURROUNDINGS, ELGEYO MARAKWET COUNTY, KENYA JEPKOECH, GLADYS Globally, the combined impacts of climate change and land use alterations have accelerated forest degradation, disrupting ecological balance and contributing to biodiversity loss.The Kipkunurr Forest region and its surroundings in Elgeyo Marakwet County are undergoing significant environmental transformation brought about by climate fluctuations and landscape modifications of land use/land cover (LULC). The reduction of forest cover caused by these changes transforms ecosystem operations and negatively impacts biodiversity, water resources, and local livelihoods. The goal of the study was to assess the effects of climate change and land use/land cover changes on Kipkunurr Forest and its surroundings. The study specifically sought to analyze the spatio-temporal changes in LULC from 1995 to 2024; to evaluate forest health using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) over the same period; to assess temperature and rainfall variability between 1994 and 2024; and to establish the relationships between climate change, LULC changes, and forest health. This research adopted a descriptive research design, integrating remote sensing and GIS analysis, climate data assessment, household surveys, and Key Informant Interviews (KIIs) to comprehensively examine land use changes, climatic trends, and their implications on forest conservation. Landsat images were used for land use and land cover analysis and NDVI calculation and meteorological station climate data for analysis of temperature and rainfall. The study relied on data from 382 households selected for interviews, five key informant interviews, including a Forester, four forest rangers, and a NEMA official along with local communities to examine LULC change factors and climate change. The analysis reveals significant changes in land use and land cover (LULC), with forest cover declining from 57.45% in 1995 to 35.06% in 2004, before slightly increasing to 36.98% by 2024. Climate data analysis for the period 1994 to 2024 reveals a gradual increase in mean annual temperature from approximately 20.2 °C to 20.8 °C. Although annual rainfall exhibited notable interannual variability, an overall increasing trend was observed, rising from around 1,100 mm to over 1,350 mm by 2024. The major drivers of land use and land cover transformation consisted of agricultural growth, population growth, logging and resource extraction with climate change acting as a moderate force against forest health conditions. Satellite-derived NDVI data pointed to a little vegetation density increase under ongoing land use stress which amounted to a value range of -0.48 to 0.77 in 1995 then decreased to 0.58 in 2004 and 0.57 in 2014 and rose to 0.61 by 2024. According to research findings, Kipkunurr Forest is under a lot of environmental stress due to factors like climate fluctuation, unclear boundaries, high reliance on forest resources, and agricultural growth. Due to human and climatic stresses, persistent forest degradation continues, especially close to forest boundaries, despite modest advances in recent years in forest cover and vegetation health. The study recommends that reforestation, defined boundaries, controlled grazing, and less dependence on forest- based fuel be implemented by the Kenya Forest Service in collaboration with the County Government and local communities as components of integrated solutions necessary for effective forest conservation.

FACTORS INFLUENCING RIVER DISCHARGE IN MOIBEN RIVER CATCHMENT, KENYA

2026-06-08T07:35:41Z

FACTORS INFLUENCING RIVER DISCHARGE IN MOIBEN RIVER CATCHMENT, KENYA KOECH, MERCY This study examines the factors influencing river discharge in the Moiben River catchment, Kenya by looking at the shifts in the trends of river discharge, the changes that are associated with the changes in land uses and the socio-economic influences from the period 1995 to 2024.Some of the environmental and socio-economic changes over the period are farm land expansion, deforestation, and increasing water needs of the people. These shifts have raised concerns about fluctuating river discharge, water scarcity and the sustainability of available water for both the people and ecological needs. Kenya is among the water- deficient nation with a yearly per capita water supply being less than 1000 m3; therefore, its water sources needs conservation. Most of the water needs in the Kenyan watersheds are influenced by the human activities around these watersheds. In the case of the Moiben River catchment, discharge fluctuations, declining water levels, and water shortages have been observed but limited research has been conducted to investigate the exact reasons behind the declining and fluctuating river discharge. The primary objective of the study is to assess the key factors influencing river discharge in this area, which is important for local water supply and resource governance. The study utilized GIS-based methods and satellite images to analyze the changing LULC, alongside data from hydrological data such as river discharge and rainfall records. Household surveys and key informant interviews assessed socio-economic factors influencing discharge patterns. Statistical and geospatial techniques were used to establish relationships among these factors, and also hydrological modelling using HEC-HMS was utilized to simulate the peak discharge over the period. The findings revealed fluctuations in river discharge, with a slight but statistically insignificant upward trend at p < 0.05 (Qt = 0.8534t + 112.96, R2=0.0221, p=0.530). Wet season discharge (1.25±0.12 m3/s) was higher than the dry season (1.07±0.41 m3/s). LULC analysis showed cropland expansion (51.48% to 77.67%) and forest cover slightly increased from (30.53% to 31.22%), while rangeland and grassland have declined. Temperature rose significantly (r= 0.926, p= 0.074), while rainfall was moderate (r= 0.751, p= 0.249). Cropland (r= 0.922, p= 0.078) and built area (r= 0.914, p= 0.086) increased with time. River discharge had positive correlations with forest cover (r= 0.964, p= 0.036) and rangeland (r= 0.983, p= 0.017) changes and the peak discharge was 87.9m3/s in a 30-year return period. The results will inform sustainable water resource management and sustainable land use planning measures, providing valuable insights benefiting policymakers, conservation agencies, and local communities to mitigate the implications of the changing climate and land uses on river discharge through practices such as reforestation, adoption of water-efficient irrigation methods, protection of riparian zones, and promotion of sustainable land management techniques. The findings from this research will contribute to improving water conservation and enhancing resilience for this region.

MODELING LAND DEGRADATION FOR CONSERVATION PLANNING IN KALEHE TERRITORY, EASTERN D.R. CONGO

2026-06-05T09:40:10Z

MODELING LAND DEGRADATION FOR CONSERVATION PLANNING IN KALEHE TERRITORY, EASTERN D.R. CONGO NACISHALI, NTERANYA Jean The Eastern D.R. Congo is experiencing land degradation resulting from unsustainable land use which prevent the achievement of the land degradation neutrality in this region. This thesis aims to model the land degradation (LD) for conservation planning of natural resources in this region by using the Kalehe territory as a case study. Based on the system theory, a mixed approach combining field surveys, GIS, and remote sensing techniques was adopted. The geospatial data were used to assess the LULC changes, their implications on land productivity (LP), ecosystem service value (ESV), and soil erosion dynamics. Furthermore, a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) based model was developed to assess the land degradation vulnerability (LDV). The results of these geospatial analyses were triangulated with community perception data to identify the DPSIR (Drivers-Pressures-State-Impacts-Responses) indicators toward the LD management. By analyzing the LULC changes from 1987 to 2020 using the Landsat images and forecasting the future LULC for 2030-2070 through Markov modelling, the study identifies trends of increasing built-up, shrub land, and cropland at the expense of forestland, grassland and wetland. These changes contributed to 34.17% of land cover degradation over the last three decades. The analysis of LP dynamics through the linear trend analysis of NDVI time series data reveals that 31.25% of the territory has experienced a decrease in LP. The assessment matrix was used to link the perceived ESV and the LULC categories. Through this approach, it was demonstrated that the potential supply of ecosystem services decreased in 28.44% of the land over the 1987- 2020 period. The assessment of soil erosion dynamics through the RUSLE model indicated that the mean annual soil loss has increased over time from 32.08 t/ha/year in 1987 to 44.35 t/ha/year in 2020. Under the current LULC trend, the annual soil loss is projected to increase to 46.42 t/ha/year by 2030, 46.79 t/ha/year by 2050, and 48.38 t/ha/year by 2070. The adoption of conservation practices would result in the reduction of the current erosion rate by 86.56%, 62.28%, 54.05%, and 11.61% for bench-based terracing, agroforestry, strip cropping, and contouring, respectively. Moreover, the LD dynamic is influenced by the landscape characteristics since the decrease of forestland, and patch’s shape complexity, the increase of patch’s isolation, landscape heterogeneity, and fragmentation positively influenced the soil erosion dynamics. Hence, the need for land consolidation, connectivity and forest conservation during the future land use planning. This study also demonstrated that the LDV model based on MCDA can be used to predict the occurrence of physical LD processes in eastern DR Congo with an accuracy of 77.82%. Thus, it can be supplemented with the outcomes of land capability (LC) analysis for restoration planning and adaptive land use planning to reduce the LDV. To address the challenges of LD, this study proposes a conceptual model of LD management and a conservation action plan including the sustainable land use according to LC, implementation of conservations practices, environmental education, and improvement of community livelihoods.

FACTORS INFLUENCING RIVER DISCHARGE IN MOIBEN RIVER CATCHMENT, KENYA

2026-06-03T13:12:22Z

IMPACTS OF LAND USE AND LAND COVER CHANGE ON MOIBEN RIVER FLOW PATTERNS

2026-06-03T09:55:56Z

IMPACTS OF LAND USE AND LAND COVER CHANGE ON MOIBEN RIVER FLOW PATTERNS ROTICH, FELIX Land Use and Land Cover Change (LULCC) is a key driver of hydrological alterations in river basins, with profound implications for sustainable watershed management and environmental planning. This study examined the impacts of LULCC on river flow patterns in the Moiben River Watershed, a critical tributary in Kenya’s Cherangany water tower that supports domestic, agricultural, and urban water needs, particularly for Eldoret City. Using a combination of remote sensing, hydrological modeling, and future scenario analysis, the research provides insights essential for integrated watershed planning and policy development. LULC maps for 1990, 2005, and 2021 were developed using Landsat imagery, and future (2055) scenarios were projected using the CA-Markov model in IDRISI Selva. Hydrological simulations were performed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), with climate data from global datasets downscaled using MarkSim DSSAT under the RCP6.0 scenario. Model calibration yielded NSE, R2 and PBIAS values of 0.73, 0.62 and -14.30% respectively whereas model validation yielded values of 0.882, 0.916 and 10.34% in the same order; indicating good model performance. Results show a 78.7% expansion in agricultural land over the study period, with corresponding declines in forest, grassland, and wetland areas. River flow simulations under alternative LULC scenarios revealed seasonal variations, where partial reforestation of agricultural land significantly improved low-season baseflows. Projections for 2055 suggest pronounced dry-season flow reductions, especially from January to June, with a peak in August and a sharp decline toward December. A paired-sample t-test confirmed statistically significant differences in monthly flows between the baseline (2010–2018) and projected (2051– 2059) periods (p < 0.000). Key informant interviews highlighted climate change and weak enforcement of land use regulations as critical emerging challenges. The findings underscore the need for scenario-based watershed planning, improved land governance, and adaptive policies that integrate climate and land use dynamics. This research contributes to the broader discourse on sustainable water resource management by providing actionable evidence to inform local and regional planning frameworks. Integrating land cover monitoring with hydrological modeling presents a viable path toward resilient environmental planning, particularly in data-scarce, climate-vulnerable regions like Kenya.

IMPACTS OF LAND USE AND LAND COVER CHANGE ON MOIBEN RIVER FLOW PATTERNS

2026-05-29T07:21:19Z

The Application of Integrated Water Resource Management Principles in Urban Kenya: The Case of Kapsabet Town

2026-03-27T09:38:33Z

The Application of Integrated Water Resource Management Principles in Urban Kenya: The Case of Kapsabet Town Chemutai, Janet; Daudi, Fatuma; Nge’tich, K. Job Water is life, as societies need sufficient amount of it to drive their economic and social development. The environment needs water too for its ecological functions. Water issues like shortages and supply deficits are every day challenges that call for an integrated approach to its management taking into account stakeholder participation, institutional integration and catchment protection. The study examined the application of Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) principles in Kapsabet town. Kapsabet town has experienced water shortage due to increasing urban migration, setting up of industries and businesses like hotels that require water in their day-to day running of the activities. A sample of 384 respondents obtained from both simple random sampling and purposive sampling were drawn from 12 administrative locations were randomly selected from Emgwen and Chesumei sub-counties for interviews and counterchecked by key informant interviews. The target population was household-holds, business people and officers from county government of Nandi, National Environment Management Authority and Water Resources Authority. The results obtained from data collection were analysed using frequencies and percentages. The research instruments were tested using Test-retest reliability and content validity. The study established that there was water shortage in the study area as pointed out by 68% of the respondents at the backdrop of a high demand for water as 45% of the respondents indicated they would use 70 litres of water per day per person. The sources of water in the study area were; river, borehole, rain- water and piped- water out of which the first three sources were easily available and accessible. In addition, the components of IWRM practised in Kapsabet Town involved stakeholder participation whereby public meetings on water management were done twice per year according to zones. The National Environmental Management Authority and Water Resources Authority institutions are involved in water conservation initiatives. A major factor that supports IWRM practice is the issue of water resource information management system facilitated by Kapsabet/Nandi water supply Company. The IWRM challenge cited was inadequate funding to support water management activities. The study concludes that full implementation of IWRM in Kapsabet Town is yet to be achieved a result of inadequate funding to improve water infrastructure to increase in water supply to Kapsabet residents and hence the need to increase funding towards water resources management.

Significance of Carbon Farming for Improved Household Incomes in Baringo County, Kenya

2026-03-27T09:19:25Z

Significance of Carbon Farming for Improved Household Incomes in Baringo County, Kenya Kiprop, John; Sumukwo, Joel; Odwori, Paul Baringo County experiences high poverty rates of 40 percent which is above national rates of 36 percent. Climate change has aggravated this by negatively impacting farm productivity especially because of the high dependency on farming. Despite this, sustainable carbon farming is with potential of generating income through carbon trade. This study analysed the significance of agroforestry in generating carbon incomes among households in the county. It used survey data of 380 households collected mainly through stratified random sampling. The two sub-counties of Eldama Ravine and Baringo central were chosen for this study because of their ecological diversity, economic significance, and vulnerability to climate change. The results showed majority (56%) of the smallholder farmers had very low awareness on carbon farming and selling of carbon credits. In spite of this, a majority (90%) of them had implemented farming activities that would meet the threshold for carbon trading. Among the 90% of respondents that practiced carbon farming, a majority of them (43%) practiced exotic and indigenous tree agroforestry, and 37% did fruit farming agroforestry. Results also indicate that the area provides an annual carbon sequestration of approximately 25,982.2 tCO₂e/ year, translating to an annual carbon income of 259,822 USD/year (KSh. 33,776,860), or USD. 56.98 (KSh. 7,407.4) per month. In conclusion, carbon farming and trading presents potential tangible income to smallholder farmers in Baringo County. This study recommends for improved sensitization of farmers on carbon farming and its potential in enhancing household incomes.

Analysing The Factors Influencing Climate Information for Improved Carbon Farming Among Smallholder Farmers in Baringo County, Kenya

2026-03-27T09:22:21Z

Analysing The Factors Influencing Climate Information for Improved Carbon Farming Among Smallholder Farmers in Baringo County, Kenya Kiprop, John; Sumukwo, Joel; Odwor, Paul Smallholder agriculture has been a mainstay of livelihoods in Baringo County for decades, but due to climate change effects, it’s dependency is extremely challenged. Using survey data of 380 households collected using stratified random sampling, factors influencing climate information for improved carbon farming among smallholder farmers were analysed. Eldama Ravine and Baringo central sub-counties were chosen for the study because of their ecological diversity, agribusiness significance, and vulnerability to climate change. Results revealed that the best media to use in sharing climate information in Baringo county was television (78%) while the least was newspapers (0.3%), probably because of affordability of newspapers. Gender influenced awareness and access to climate information since that male (64%) had higher awareness and access than female (55%). it was also noted that Most (89%) of the respondents agreed and strongly agreed that accessibility of smallholder farmer to agricultural extension services played important role in accessing climate information. ANOVA and Multiple regression (R2 , 0.54) results displayed age(B = -0.44,p = 0.104), gender(B = 0.014, p = 0.048), education level(B = 0.021, p = 0.058), and household income(B = 0.062, p = 0.007) were significant in influencing climate information. This study concludes agricultural extension information to be important in accessing climate information and the need of empowering women in farm decision-making. It is recommended that gender-sensitive approaches be incorporated into agricultural extension services to empower women in decision-making and bridge the gender gap in climate information access.

Spatio-Temporal Changes in Land Use and Land Cover in Kipkunurr Forest and Its Adjacent Landscapes, Elgeyo Marakwet County, Kenya

2026-03-24T07:41:08Z

Spatio-Temporal Changes in Land Use and Land Cover in Kipkunurr Forest and Its Adjacent Landscapes, Elgeyo Marakwet County, Kenya Jepkoech, Gladys; Sang, Catherine Chebet; Ngetich, Job Kipkurgat The essential status of forests for climate control and biodiversity protection together with supporting local subsistence requires tracking their spatial and temporal patterns. The process of studying land use and land cover dynamics provides fundamental information for proper forest conservation practices along with sustainable resource management schemes. This study focused on spatial-temporal land use and land cover assessment of Kipkunurr Forest and adjacent landscapes in Kenya during the period from 1995 to 2024. The need is to identify the causes behind forest cover changes together with their conservation consequences. Data was collected using remote sensing, household surveys, and key informant interviews. A GIS process applied supervised classification methods to multi-temporal Landsat 5 images (1990, 2004), Landsat 7 images (2014), and Landsat 8 images (2024) to conduct land use land cover changes and change detection analysis. The examined forest data reveals Kipkunurr Forest lost about 12,702 hectares of its original 30,053 hectares during the 1995 to 2004 period due to agricultural development, illegal logging, and settlement expansion. A minimal forest recovery took place fro m 2014 through 2024, where forest area expanded to about 19,345 hectares. The recovery stems from enhanced conservation rules, reforestation programs, and decreased human encroachment. Shrubland and grassland areas rose slightly while forest areas improved during this period despite ongoing human pressure in activities like firewood collection, illegal logging, and grazing. Geospatial technology use for forest monitoring reveals both the benefits of tracking changes effectively and supports the immediate requirements for integrated forest conservation approaches. The study brings evidence-based findings which help guide local policies and community participation toward sustainable forest practices in the important water catchment areas such as Kipkunurr.