Theses and Dessertations

ASSESSMENT OF THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND LAND USE CHANGES ON KIPKUNURR FOREST AND ITS SURROUNDINGS, ELGEYO MARAKWET COUNTY, KENYA

2026-06-08T07:45:51Z

ASSESSMENT OF THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND LAND USE CHANGES ON KIPKUNURR FOREST AND ITS SURROUNDINGS, ELGEYO MARAKWET COUNTY, KENYA JEPKOECH, GLADYS Globally, the combined impacts of climate change and land use alterations have accelerated forest degradation, disrupting ecological balance and contributing to biodiversity loss.The Kipkunurr Forest region and its surroundings in Elgeyo Marakwet County are undergoing significant environmental transformation brought about by climate fluctuations and landscape modifications of land use/land cover (LULC). The reduction of forest cover caused by these changes transforms ecosystem operations and negatively impacts biodiversity, water resources, and local livelihoods. The goal of the study was to assess the effects of climate change and land use/land cover changes on Kipkunurr Forest and its surroundings. The study specifically sought to analyze the spatio-temporal changes in LULC from 1995 to 2024; to evaluate forest health using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) over the same period; to assess temperature and rainfall variability between 1994 and 2024; and to establish the relationships between climate change, LULC changes, and forest health. This research adopted a descriptive research design, integrating remote sensing and GIS analysis, climate data assessment, household surveys, and Key Informant Interviews (KIIs) to comprehensively examine land use changes, climatic trends, and their implications on forest conservation. Landsat images were used for land use and land cover analysis and NDVI calculation and meteorological station climate data for analysis of temperature and rainfall. The study relied on data from 382 households selected for interviews, five key informant interviews, including a Forester, four forest rangers, and a NEMA official along with local communities to examine LULC change factors and climate change. The analysis reveals significant changes in land use and land cover (LULC), with forest cover declining from 57.45% in 1995 to 35.06% in 2004, before slightly increasing to 36.98% by 2024. Climate data analysis for the period 1994 to 2024 reveals a gradual increase in mean annual temperature from approximately 20.2 °C to 20.8 °C. Although annual rainfall exhibited notable interannual variability, an overall increasing trend was observed, rising from around 1,100 mm to over 1,350 mm by 2024. The major drivers of land use and land cover transformation consisted of agricultural growth, population growth, logging and resource extraction with climate change acting as a moderate force against forest health conditions. Satellite-derived NDVI data pointed to a little vegetation density increase under ongoing land use stress which amounted to a value range of -0.48 to 0.77 in 1995 then decreased to 0.58 in 2004 and 0.57 in 2014 and rose to 0.61 by 2024. According to research findings, Kipkunurr Forest is under a lot of environmental stress due to factors like climate fluctuation, unclear boundaries, high reliance on forest resources, and agricultural growth. Due to human and climatic stresses, persistent forest degradation continues, especially close to forest boundaries, despite modest advances in recent years in forest cover and vegetation health. The study recommends that reforestation, defined boundaries, controlled grazing, and less dependence on forest- based fuel be implemented by the Kenya Forest Service in collaboration with the County Government and local communities as components of integrated solutions necessary for effective forest conservation.

FACTORS INFLUENCING RIVER DISCHARGE IN MOIBEN RIVER CATCHMENT, KENYA

2026-06-08T07:35:41Z

FACTORS INFLUENCING RIVER DISCHARGE IN MOIBEN RIVER CATCHMENT, KENYA KOECH, MERCY This study examines the factors influencing river discharge in the Moiben River catchment, Kenya by looking at the shifts in the trends of river discharge, the changes that are associated with the changes in land uses and the socio-economic influences from the period 1995 to 2024.Some of the environmental and socio-economic changes over the period are farm land expansion, deforestation, and increasing water needs of the people. These shifts have raised concerns about fluctuating river discharge, water scarcity and the sustainability of available water for both the people and ecological needs. Kenya is among the water- deficient nation with a yearly per capita water supply being less than 1000 m3; therefore, its water sources needs conservation. Most of the water needs in the Kenyan watersheds are influenced by the human activities around these watersheds. In the case of the Moiben River catchment, discharge fluctuations, declining water levels, and water shortages have been observed but limited research has been conducted to investigate the exact reasons behind the declining and fluctuating river discharge. The primary objective of the study is to assess the key factors influencing river discharge in this area, which is important for local water supply and resource governance. The study utilized GIS-based methods and satellite images to analyze the changing LULC, alongside data from hydrological data such as river discharge and rainfall records. Household surveys and key informant interviews assessed socio-economic factors influencing discharge patterns. Statistical and geospatial techniques were used to establish relationships among these factors, and also hydrological modelling using HEC-HMS was utilized to simulate the peak discharge over the period. The findings revealed fluctuations in river discharge, with a slight but statistically insignificant upward trend at p < 0.05 (Qt = 0.8534t + 112.96, R2=0.0221, p=0.530). Wet season discharge (1.25±0.12 m3/s) was higher than the dry season (1.07±0.41 m3/s). LULC analysis showed cropland expansion (51.48% to 77.67%) and forest cover slightly increased from (30.53% to 31.22%), while rangeland and grassland have declined. Temperature rose significantly (r= 0.926, p= 0.074), while rainfall was moderate (r= 0.751, p= 0.249). Cropland (r= 0.922, p= 0.078) and built area (r= 0.914, p= 0.086) increased with time. River discharge had positive correlations with forest cover (r= 0.964, p= 0.036) and rangeland (r= 0.983, p= 0.017) changes and the peak discharge was 87.9m3/s in a 30-year return period. The results will inform sustainable water resource management and sustainable land use planning measures, providing valuable insights benefiting policymakers, conservation agencies, and local communities to mitigate the implications of the changing climate and land uses on river discharge through practices such as reforestation, adoption of water-efficient irrigation methods, protection of riparian zones, and promotion of sustainable land management techniques. The findings from this research will contribute to improving water conservation and enhancing resilience for this region.

MODELING LAND DEGRADATION FOR CONSERVATION PLANNING IN KALEHE TERRITORY, EASTERN D.R. CONGO

2026-06-05T09:40:10Z

MODELING LAND DEGRADATION FOR CONSERVATION PLANNING IN KALEHE TERRITORY, EASTERN D.R. CONGO NACISHALI, NTERANYA Jean The Eastern D.R. Congo is experiencing land degradation resulting from unsustainable land use which prevent the achievement of the land degradation neutrality in this region. This thesis aims to model the land degradation (LD) for conservation planning of natural resources in this region by using the Kalehe territory as a case study. Based on the system theory, a mixed approach combining field surveys, GIS, and remote sensing techniques was adopted. The geospatial data were used to assess the LULC changes, their implications on land productivity (LP), ecosystem service value (ESV), and soil erosion dynamics. Furthermore, a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) based model was developed to assess the land degradation vulnerability (LDV). The results of these geospatial analyses were triangulated with community perception data to identify the DPSIR (Drivers-Pressures-State-Impacts-Responses) indicators toward the LD management. By analyzing the LULC changes from 1987 to 2020 using the Landsat images and forecasting the future LULC for 2030-2070 through Markov modelling, the study identifies trends of increasing built-up, shrub land, and cropland at the expense of forestland, grassland and wetland. These changes contributed to 34.17% of land cover degradation over the last three decades. The analysis of LP dynamics through the linear trend analysis of NDVI time series data reveals that 31.25% of the territory has experienced a decrease in LP. The assessment matrix was used to link the perceived ESV and the LULC categories. Through this approach, it was demonstrated that the potential supply of ecosystem services decreased in 28.44% of the land over the 1987- 2020 period. The assessment of soil erosion dynamics through the RUSLE model indicated that the mean annual soil loss has increased over time from 32.08 t/ha/year in 1987 to 44.35 t/ha/year in 2020. Under the current LULC trend, the annual soil loss is projected to increase to 46.42 t/ha/year by 2030, 46.79 t/ha/year by 2050, and 48.38 t/ha/year by 2070. The adoption of conservation practices would result in the reduction of the current erosion rate by 86.56%, 62.28%, 54.05%, and 11.61% for bench-based terracing, agroforestry, strip cropping, and contouring, respectively. Moreover, the LD dynamic is influenced by the landscape characteristics since the decrease of forestland, and patch’s shape complexity, the increase of patch’s isolation, landscape heterogeneity, and fragmentation positively influenced the soil erosion dynamics. Hence, the need for land consolidation, connectivity and forest conservation during the future land use planning. This study also demonstrated that the LDV model based on MCDA can be used to predict the occurrence of physical LD processes in eastern DR Congo with an accuracy of 77.82%. Thus, it can be supplemented with the outcomes of land capability (LC) analysis for restoration planning and adaptive land use planning to reduce the LDV. To address the challenges of LD, this study proposes a conceptual model of LD management and a conservation action plan including the sustainable land use according to LC, implementation of conservations practices, environmental education, and improvement of community livelihoods.

FACTORS INFLUENCING RIVER DISCHARGE IN MOIBEN RIVER CATCHMENT, KENYA

2026-06-03T13:12:22Z

IMPACTS OF LAND USE AND LAND COVER CHANGE ON MOIBEN RIVER FLOW PATTERNS

2026-06-03T09:55:56Z

IMPACTS OF LAND USE AND LAND COVER CHANGE ON MOIBEN RIVER FLOW PATTERNS ROTICH, FELIX Land Use and Land Cover Change (LULCC) is a key driver of hydrological alterations in river basins, with profound implications for sustainable watershed management and environmental planning. This study examined the impacts of LULCC on river flow patterns in the Moiben River Watershed, a critical tributary in Kenya’s Cherangany water tower that supports domestic, agricultural, and urban water needs, particularly for Eldoret City. Using a combination of remote sensing, hydrological modeling, and future scenario analysis, the research provides insights essential for integrated watershed planning and policy development. LULC maps for 1990, 2005, and 2021 were developed using Landsat imagery, and future (2055) scenarios were projected using the CA-Markov model in IDRISI Selva. Hydrological simulations were performed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), with climate data from global datasets downscaled using MarkSim DSSAT under the RCP6.0 scenario. Model calibration yielded NSE, R2 and PBIAS values of 0.73, 0.62 and -14.30% respectively whereas model validation yielded values of 0.882, 0.916 and 10.34% in the same order; indicating good model performance. Results show a 78.7% expansion in agricultural land over the study period, with corresponding declines in forest, grassland, and wetland areas. River flow simulations under alternative LULC scenarios revealed seasonal variations, where partial reforestation of agricultural land significantly improved low-season baseflows. Projections for 2055 suggest pronounced dry-season flow reductions, especially from January to June, with a peak in August and a sharp decline toward December. A paired-sample t-test confirmed statistically significant differences in monthly flows between the baseline (2010–2018) and projected (2051– 2059) periods (p < 0.000). Key informant interviews highlighted climate change and weak enforcement of land use regulations as critical emerging challenges. The findings underscore the need for scenario-based watershed planning, improved land governance, and adaptive policies that integrate climate and land use dynamics. This research contributes to the broader discourse on sustainable water resource management by providing actionable evidence to inform local and regional planning frameworks. Integrating land cover monitoring with hydrological modeling presents a viable path toward resilient environmental planning, particularly in data-scarce, climate-vulnerable regions like Kenya.

IMPACTS OF LAND USE AND LAND COVER CHANGE ON MOIBEN RIVER FLOW PATTERNS

2026-05-29T07:21:19Z

DRIVERS AND EFFECTS OF URBAN SPATIALIZATION IN KENYA: THE CASE OF KAPSABET TOWN IN NANDI COUNTY

2025-04-02T09:58:44Z

DRIVERS AND EFFECTS OF URBAN SPATIALIZATION IN KENYA: THE CASE OF KAPSABET TOWN IN NANDI COUNTY NYAYIEKA, BENSON Urban areas are rapidly growing. Therefore, information on the actual extent of urban expansion, drivers and consequences of such are urgently needed for proper planning. The goal of this study was to assess Kapsabet Town's geographical growth, as well as its primary causes and implications. A survey research design was used in this study. Specifically, the study relied on geospatial mapping to determine the changes experienced by the town between 1975 and 2020. Questionnaires and scheduled interviews were conducted among 398 respondents drawn from the local area and County Government officials through simple random sampling. The findings show that land conversion into urban land uses was the primary course of change in Kapsabet. Built up areas in 1975 occupied 16.74 ha (22.4%) and expanded to 38.07 hectares (ha) (26.3%) in 1991, 148.77 ha (28.30%) in 2006 and 348.13 ha (35.6%) in 2020 An estimated 20.16 hectares (36.5%) of forest land were expected to be present in 1975. By 2006, just 26.8% of the total urban area was made up of forest land. In 1975, there were 11.97 hectares of tea plantations; by 1991, there were 38.75 hectares (28.8%) of plantations. However, between 1975 and 2020, the amount of farmland decreased significantly. The key drivers of spatial urban expansion of Kapsabet Town were conversion of agricultural land to other uses (80.22%) followed by development of commercial buildings (68.32% and residential buildings (53.01%) while a few proportions of respondents indicated policy framework (12.00%) and growth of academic institutions (11.05%). Further analysis indicates an increase in production of food items such as milk, meat, fruits, vegetables and maize due to the urban expansion by 1.5% every year. The net effect of increased food production is improved food security in the region. Increased employment opportunities, increased trade, enhanced feeder roads in the region thus improving transport were also reported at a rate of 0.7% per year. Nonetheless, people of the local community lamented the loss of forest cover as a result of the region's agricultural growth and therefore the region is likely to suffer most from the vagaries associated with forest cover such as climate change, which were nevertheless not indicated to be serious concern by the local community members. Key environmental impacts of urban expansion were notably solid waste disposal, about 60% of homes in Kapsabet inappropriately dispose of waste and the town doesn’t have a proper designated dumping site. For majority of the respondents, the consequences of urban spatial expansion were increased crime rates including prostitution. The study recommends for the need, to regulate the pace and scope of urban spatial expansion in order to secure the preservation of agricultural land and overall environmental sustainability

LAND USE LAND COVER CHANGES AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS ON LAND DEGRADATION IN ELGEYO ESCARPMENT, KENYA

2024-07-18T10:48:14Z

LAND USE LAND COVER CHANGES AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS ON LAND DEGRADATION IN ELGEYO ESCARPMENT, KENYA KANDA, RICHARD KIPKEMOI Land use land cover (LULC) changes have become common experience globally with detrimental impacts on the environment. In Elgeyo Marakwet County, agriculture and settlements have extended to the Elgeyo escarpment. However, information on their extent and implications on soil properties and erosion in the escarpment is scanty. This was despite of its fragility, importance as rivers source and tourism. The study mainly determined the implications of LULC changes on land degradation in Elgeyo escarpment. Specifically it; determined LULC dynamics and their drivers, assessed the impact of LULC conversions on soil erosion occurrence and soil properties in Elgeyo escarpment. Landsat 5 (1995) and Landsat 8 satellite images for 2014 and 2020 were downloaded from United States Geological survey website. A structured questionnaire was administered to 180 respondents sampled via snowball method, eight focus group discussions and seven key informant interviews were performed. Sixty soil samples from four purposively selected sites were analyzed using standard laboratory procedures. Remote sensing and geographic information system were used to examine LULC dynamics while Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation was used to compute soil erosion. Differences in soil parameters among LULC classes were tested using one-way ANOVA. The results indicate that in 1995-2014 period, forest, built-up and cropland gained by 411.8%, 201% and 13.6%, respectively while grassland and shrubland decreased by 78.2% and 24.4% respectively. In 2014-2020, grassland, built-up, shrubland and cropland decreased by 79.7%, 39.1%, 21.7% and 11.8% respectively while forest cover increased by 63%. LULC changes were driven by population growth (97.8%), food demand (88.9%) and conflict (44.4%). Average soil erosion in 1995 and 2020 were 14.02 tha-1y-1 and 18.76 tha-1y-1 respectively. Soil erosion occurrence was 67.1% in Shrubland in 1995 but declined to 39.8% by 2020, comparable to that in forest (39.4%). Soil erosion increased with slope and sections with slope >300 encountering the highest (1225 t/ha/y) owing to high rainfall erosivity. Soil properties differed among LULC classes. Soil pH was slightly acid (6.20) in forest and moderately acid (5.38) in cropland. Organic carbon was high (4.83 %) in forest and moderate (2.57%) in cropland. Nitrogen levels were moderate (0.12-0.23%) across all LULC classes. Phosphorous was high in forest (81.85 ppm) whereas potassium was high in forest (872.67 ppm). Moisture contents were 19.70% and 14.34% respectively in forest and cropland. Forest had the most (1.00 g/cm3) and cropland the least (1.40 g/cm3) favorable soil bulk density. There were profound LULC changes. The conversion of natural ecosystems to farmlands accelerated soil erosion and decline in soil physicochemical properties. Accordingly, enhanced implementation of farm forestry rules, land management laws, Land adjudication and adoption of beekeeping are crucial to sustainably conserve this escarpment.

PLANNING FOR SMART TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM IN URBAN KENYA A CASE OF ELDORET MUNICIPALITY

2024-02-27T09:43:52Z

PLANNING FOR SMART TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM IN URBAN KENYA A CASE OF ELDORET MUNICIPALITY CHEBOI, JOHN KILIMO Transport Systems are essential for the development of economies of nations. Even so, transportation itself, and more so, the use of automobiles has negative environmental externalities that threaten the very existence of humanity such the generation of greenhouse gases. Other negative impacts of transportation include human safety issues through traffic accidents causing injury and even deaths. The main objective of this study was to develop an efficient urban mobility system for Eldoret Municipality. The study was guided by a series of specific objectives which were: to establish the origin and destination patterns of traffic within the Municipality, to establish the modal split, to determine infrastructure capacities for Smart Transport within Eldoret Municipality, to determine the relationship between urban mobility patterns and noise and emission levels in Eldoret Municipality and to determine the socio-economic effects associated with urban mobility systems within the Municipality. The study area covered the entire Eldoret Municipality in Uasin Gishu County with an area of approximately 148 km2. The study adopted mixed methods research as the preferred research design involving the use of both qualitative and quantitative methods for both data collection and data analysis. Systematic random sampling was used to obtain respondents who were found within the identified four Gordon points where specific data was collected. Data from nine (9) modes of transport was also collected. The Data was collected by use of both primary and secondary methods which included the use of questionnaires, key informant interviews, observation, use of global positioning systems (GPS), photography and literature from various sources such as books and journals. Data was subjected to SPSS, Ms excel and Arc GIS 10.5. The data then underwent both qualitative and quantitative analysis where the findings were presented using graphs, charts, tables and statements. Findings illustrates that transportation in Eldoret municipality is unsustainable. There is heavy use of automobiles as compared to greener options such as cycling and walking. The infrastructural carrying capacity is overstretched with high number of automobiles leading to traffic congestion. The study concludes that in order to achieve a smart urban transportation system there is need for an integrated approach in the implementation of transportation policy. Provision of feasible and convenient alternatives to car use, provision of high-quality public transportation systems as well as secure and opportune walking and cycling facilities have been recommended as opportunities for making urban transport green in Eldoret Municipality.

INTEGRATED ENVIRONMENTAL PLANNING OF WETLAND ECOSYSTEMS FOR SUSTAINABILITY: THE CASE OF OKANA WETLAND IN THE LOWER NYANDO RIVER BASIN, KENYA

2024-02-27T09:38:30Z

INTEGRATED ENVIRONMENTAL PLANNING OF WETLAND ECOSYSTEMS FOR SUSTAINABILITY: THE CASE OF OKANA WETLAND IN THE LOWER NYANDO RIVER BASIN, KENYA ODARO, DANIEL OPIYO Wetlands are areas, which are temporarily or permanently waterlogged by either saline, brackish or freshwater. They have provided socio-cultural, economic and ecological values to the local communities since time immemorial. They have been utilized as sources of food, water, building and construction materials, handicrafts, medicinal herbs as well as grazing fields for both wild and domesticated animals. The wetlands in the Lake basin in particular have supported millions of livelihoods of the communities living within the basin. However, the utilization of the localized small wetlands has not been guided by appropriate management strategies despite the existing national wetlands conservation and management policy. This has given leeway to unregulated wetland utilization and ad-hoc management of the ecosystems. The situation has been exacerbated by the destruction of the basins’ catchment, which is likely to impact significantly on the wetland ecosystems due to a possible change in their distribution, utilization and management. The apparent change coupled with the rapid urbanization and increasing economic demand and human populations in the basin may result in degradation of the ecosystems. This puts the livelihoods of the adjacent local communities that directly rely on them at risk. An analysis of land use land cover change – cause and effects –in Okana wetlands is necessary if their numerous socio-cultural, economic and ecological values are to be enhanced now and in the future. The study focused on the Okana wetlands in the lower Nyando River basin in western Kenya and was guided by the Natural Resource Use theory. The objectives of the study included: Analysing land use changes in Okana area; determining the contribution of wetland resources to the household income in Okana area; determining the impacts of wetland resources utilization in Okana area, and assessing the effectiveness of wetland management regimes in Okana area. The methods of data collection used in the research study include informal interviews, structured questionnaires, observation, Focused Group Discussions (FGDs), Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA), photographs, remote sensing and review of related literature. Both random and purposive sampling techniques were used to ensure that the whole population is represented. The data was analysed using both qualitative and quantitative techniques such as content analysis, Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS), Barbier’s Economic Valuation Tool as well as ArcGIS software for the geo-referenced data. The results are presented in form of tables, charts, percentages, plates and discussions. The study has established that the wetland ecosystem has been encroached upon and converted into agricultural farmlands thereby reducing in size and resulting in decline in biodiversity due to habitat destruction; and that the riparian communities mostly depend on the wetland resources for their livelihoods. The findings of the study will help to enhance sustainable utilization and management of wetland resources in the study area and other regions through adoption of Bottom-Up strategy. The findings will also help policy makers and conservationists in reviewing the existing wetland conservation and management policy in Kenya. This will be based on the generated data and/or information on the status of the wetland, its current use and potential threats.