http://41.89.164.27:8080/xmlui/handle/123456789/15 2026-06-09T06:44:18Z http://41.89.164.27:8080/xmlui/handle/123456789/2753 MACROINVERTEBRATE ASSEMBLAGES AND BODY SIZE DISTRIBUTION IN RESPONSE TO LAND-USE CHANGES IN HEADWATER STREAMS OF THE SONDU-MIRIU RIVER BASIN, KENYA KULUO, GIDEON Assemblages of aquatic macroinvertebrates have spatial and temporal variations in structure in response to environmental changes of their habitats, such as streams and rivers. Taxonomic approaches for monitoring the ecological status of aquatic ecosystems using macroinvertebrate assemblages face several limitations, creating a need for ataxonomic methods that are valid, disturbance-sensitive, and cost-effective for freshwater monitoring. This study evaluated the influence of seasonality and land-use changes on macroinvertebrate assemblage structure and water physico-chemical parameters of headwater streams of the Sondu-Miriu River basin, Kenya. Additionally, the study evaluated the utility of macroinvertebrate size-spectrum metrics and abundance-biomass comparison (ABC) curves as ataxonomic methods of evaluating land-use influence on the river’s ecological condition. Macroinvertebrate taxonomic abundance (individuals/m2), wet weight (mg), and physico-chemical variables were measured during the wet and dry seasons in March and September 2024, respectively, from 24 headwater streams distributed across four land-use types: natural forest (NF), tea and tree plantations (TTP), smallholder tea (SHT), and smallholder agriculture (SHA). Results based on water quality showed turbidity, total suspended solids (TSS), total dissolved solids (TDS), electrical conductivity (EC), particulate organic matter (POM), and nitrate (NO3 - -N) identified streams in NF as least disturbed and in SHA as most disturbed; TTP and SHT streams were intermediate in water quality. Taxon richness, diversity, and Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera (EPT) indices indicated land-use specific influences on assemblage structure. Redundancy analysis (RDA) showed thatsmall-bodied taxa (<8 mg wet weight) were associated with high disturbance indicators, while large-bodied taxa (>32 mg) were associated with low disturbance indicators and sites. Slopes (λ) of normalized abundance- and biomass-based size-spectrum (a measure of trophic transfer efficiency) deviated from theoretical steady-state conditions (λ=-2.0 and -1.0, respectively), indicating that the sites were disturbed, but the slopes did not vary significantly between land uses or seasons, suggesting size-spectrum slopes had low sensitivity to land-use-based changes in water quality. In contrast, size-spectrum midpoint heights (a measure of ecosystem production) differed significantly between sites, highest at SHT and NF and lowest at SHA and TTP streams. Spectrum midpoint heights were, therefore, more responsive to disturbance than slopes, highlighting their potential as indicators of land-use influence on the Afrotropical streams. Although the ABC curves indicated undisturbed conditions for all sites, Warwick’s (W) statistics revealed subtle differences among streams, suggesting variation in local-scale ecological conditions. This study demonstrated that catchment land use significantly influences water quality and macroinvertebrate assemblages in headwater streams of the Sondu-Miriu River basin. Traditional metrics (%EPT and diversity indices) are useful indicators of land use-based disturbance, while size-spectrum midpoint heights are potentially useful ataxonomic indicators of disturbance in the studied streams. It is recommended to integrate both community indices and functional metrics (especially midpoint height) into stream biomonitoring as complementary method for evaluating the ecological status of headwater streams. Management efforts should prioritize riparian buffers and nutrient/sediment control in SHA areas of the basin, while conserving less-impacted NF sites as reference areas. Long-term and broader spatial-scale studies are needed to validate the stability of size-spectrum metrics and ABC curves as rapid tools for monitoring the ecological status of headwater streams in response to anthropogenic influences. 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z http://41.89.164.27:8080/xmlui/handle/123456789/2750 THE EFFECT OF EBB-AND-FLOW TECHNOLOGY, SUBSTRATE TYPES AND SALT-TOLERANT CROP (Apium graveolens L.) ON NUTRIENT REMOVAL FROM A BREWERY EFFLUENT OBADO, ELIZABETH Brewing industries face economic and environmental challenges of water use, energy consumption, and effluent disposal. The limited water availability and strict effluent discharge regulations in the South African Brewery justify wastewater treatment and recycling. Constructed wetland (CW) design and operation have been optimised for sustainable wastewater treatment. An ebb-and-flow technology is a CW design that creates aerobic and anaerobic conditions essential for wastewater treatment. South African Ibhayi Brewery effluent is treated onsite using a commercial-scale anaerobic digester (AD) and activated sludge units. However, the anaerobically digested effluent has high treatment costs and does not meet the environmental discharge standards. Therefore, the post-AD effluent is further treated using a low-cost CW technology. This study investigated the effect of ebb-and-flow CW operation, substrate types and celery plant growth on nutrient removal from a post-AD brewery effluent. Two experiments were conducted; Experiment 1 examined the effect of retention times (10, 20 and 40 minutes) and gravel sizes (7, 13, and 19 mm) on nutrient removal. The retention times (RT) and gravel sizes were allocated as treatment combinations and replicated thrice in a completely randomised design. In the second experiment, an ebb-and-flow CW was used to investigate the effect of media types planted with a celery crop on nutrient removal. Eight media (clay pebbles, clay bricks, sand, bioballs, recycled plastic, and gravel sizes), either alone or mixed, were tested. A 2:1:1 ratio of each media, pine bark and granular activated carbon, respectively, was used for mixed treatments. A uniform celery planting density of eight seedlings per m 2 and a 12-minute effluent retention time were used. Results for experiment 1 indicated significant differences at p≤ 0.05 between RT and gravel size treatment combinations on nutrient removal. The 10-minute RT at 19-mm gravel achieved the highest reduction in chemical oxygen demand (COD) of 8.2 %, 7.7 % ammonia-N and 38 % total inorganic nitrogen removal. The 40-minute RT at 7-mm gravel had the highest nitrate-N removal of 18.6 %. Orthophosphate removal was below 5 % in all treatments. The peak removal for ammonia and total inorganic nitrogen was after 8 and 10 weeks, respectively, suggesting that the efficiency of the ebb-and-flow design on nutrient removal is time-dependent. The aerobic and anaerobic conditions of ebb-and-flow operation, gravel surface area and effluent retention time influence nutrient transformation and removal. Results for Experiment 2 indicated significant differences between unmixed and mixed media on nutrient removal (p ≤0.05). The unmixed media of clay pebbles had the highest mean reduction chemical oxygen demand of 7.5% and 8.1% ammonia-N removal. Mixing resulted in better overall mean removal efficiency of nitrite- N (7.6%), nitrate-N (15.3%), total inorganic nitrogen (29.9%), orthophosphate (12.7%) and plant biomass (11158.5 gm -2 ) than unmixed media. Media porosity, surface area, chemical composition and celery plant growth enhanced nutrient removal through synergistic interactions. Experiment 1 recommends a short effluent retention time of 10 minutes on 19-mm gravel for improved nutrient removal in the ebb-and-flow system design. Experiment 2 recommends unmixed clay pebbles, bioballs, and 19-mm gravel forimproved ammonia-N removal and mixed media for multiple pollutant removal and celery productivity in the ebb-and-flow constructed wetland. 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z http://41.89.164.27:8080/xmlui/handle/123456789/2743 CROP DAMAGE BY GREY CROWNED CRANE (Balearica regulorum) ON FARMS IN UASIN GISHU COUNTY, KENYA KITUI, VIVIAN Continued loss and degradation of natural habitats force wildlife species to extend their habitats into farmlands and human-dominated landscapes. The Grey Crowned Crane (Balearica regulorum), classified as endangered, is increasingly found foraging in agricultural landscapes due to ongoing habitat loss, raising concerns about crop damage and its effects on local livelihoods and species conservation. This study examined the extent, types, and economic impact of crop damage caused by Grey Crowned Cranes in Uasin Gishu County, Kenya, a key region for national agriculture. Using a purposive sampling method, farms with known crane activity and diverse crops were selected, and data were collected over 21 weeks through direct field observations, weekly photographs, and systematic crop damage assessments. Five common crops, maize, wheat, spinach, millet, and peas, were monitored to determine their vulnerability to crane-related damage. Observations were categorized by damage type (roots, leaves, stems, full or partial loss) and analyzed based on crop growth stages, proximity to wetlands, and crane numbers. Economic impact was measured by comparing yields and revenues from plots affected by cranes to those unaffected. Results showed that maize (0.18% ± 0.06 SE), spinach (3.01± 0.37 SE), wheat (0.14± 0.06 SE), and peas (0.06 ± 0.01 SE) suffered significant damage, especially during early growth stages, while millet (0.00± 0.00 SE) showed no visible damage. Spinach was the most vulnerable crop, with leaf and stem damage being the most common. Crane behaviors causing crop loss included foraging, pecking, and trampling. The economic analysis revealed notable reductions in yield and income in affected plots, highlighting a real threat to farmers’ livelihoods. Nevertheless, the study also indicates that this damage can be prevented using context-specific, non-lethal methods. This study recommends adopting sustainable mitigation actions, such as farmer education, developing wildlife-friendly farming practices, and establishing compensation or incentive programs to offset losses to foster peaceful coexistence between humans and wildlife while ensuring the long- term survival of Grey Crowned Cranes. Overall, the study offers valuable insights into balancing biodiversity conservation with sustainable agriculture in landscapes heavily influenced by human activity. 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z http://41.89.164.27:8080/xmlui/handle/123456789/2741 MACROINVERTEBRATE FUNCTIONAL AND STRUCTURAL RESPONSES TO HUMAN DISTURBANCE AND FLOW CESSATION IN AFROMONTANE-SAVANNAH RIVERS OWADE, CHRISTINE Freshwater ecosystems in the Afrotropics are increasingly threatened by human activities and disturbances, including agriculture, livestock grazing, water abstraction, and sand harvesting. These activities degrade habitat quality, alter flow regimes, and influence the composition and functioning of aquatic communities. This study assessed the structural and functional responses of macroinvertebrate communities to varying levels of human disturbance, flow permanence, and seasonality in the Wundanyi-Bura catchment, a representative Afromontane-savannah River system in southeastern Kenya. Macroinvertebrates were sampled from 18 study sites categorized by varying disturbance levels (low, moderate, high), flow duration type (permanent vs seasonal), and season (dry vs wet). Physical and chemical water quality parameters, habitat characteristics, and land-use patterns were also quantified. Functional composition was evaluated using Functional Feeding Groups (FFGs) and 14 biological traits comprising 52 ecological trait attributes. Results showed significant degradation in water and habitat quality with increased disturbance, particularly in the lower river reaches. Functional trait analyses revealed that disturbed and seasonal sites were dominated by resilient taxa such as burrowers, predators, and collector-gatherers, while less disturbed, permanent sites had higher proportions of sensitive taxa like shredders and scrapers. Flow variability and seasonality strongly influenced trait distributions and ecosystem attributes, including trophic dynamics, organic matter processing, and top-down control. Multivariate analyses (ANOSIM, NMDS, SIMPER) and trait-based approaches provided robust indicators of ecological integrity and disturbance gradients. This study underscores the value of integrating functional traits and FFG ratios in biomonitoring and river health assessment. It provides crucial baseline data for the Afrotropics, where biomonitoring frameworks are still underdeveloped, and highlights the need to consider both structural and functional metrics in the conservation, restoration, and management of freshwater ecosystems under increasing anthropogenic pressures. 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z http://41.89.164.27:8080/xmlui/handle/123456789/2738 ASSESSMENT OF THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND LAND USE CHANGES ON KIPKUNURR FOREST AND ITS SURROUNDINGS, ELGEYO MARAKWET COUNTY, KENYA JEPKOECH, GLADYS Globally, the combined impacts of climate change and land use alterations have accelerated forest degradation, disrupting ecological balance and contributing to biodiversity loss.The Kipkunurr Forest region and its surroundings in Elgeyo Marakwet County are undergoing significant environmental transformation brought about by climate fluctuations and landscape modifications of land use/land cover (LULC). The reduction of forest cover caused by these changes transforms ecosystem operations and negatively impacts biodiversity, water resources, and local livelihoods. The goal of the study was to assess the effects of climate change and land use/land cover changes on Kipkunurr Forest and its surroundings. The study specifically sought to analyze the spatio-temporal changes in LULC from 1995 to 2024; to evaluate forest health using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) over the same period; to assess temperature and rainfall variability between 1994 and 2024; and to establish the relationships between climate change, LULC changes, and forest health. This research adopted a descriptive research design, integrating remote sensing and GIS analysis, climate data assessment, household surveys, and Key Informant Interviews (KIIs) to comprehensively examine land use changes, climatic trends, and their implications on forest conservation. Landsat images were used for land use and land cover analysis and NDVI calculation and meteorological station climate data for analysis of temperature and rainfall. The study relied on data from 382 households selected for interviews, five key informant interviews, including a Forester, four forest rangers, and a NEMA official along with local communities to examine LULC change factors and climate change. The analysis reveals significant changes in land use and land cover (LULC), with forest cover declining from 57.45% in 1995 to 35.06% in 2004, before slightly increasing to 36.98% by 2024. Climate data analysis for the period 1994 to 2024 reveals a gradual increase in mean annual temperature from approximately 20.2 °C to 20.8 °C. Although annual rainfall exhibited notable interannual variability, an overall increasing trend was observed, rising from around 1,100 mm to over 1,350 mm by 2024. The major drivers of land use and land cover transformation consisted of agricultural growth, population growth, logging and resource extraction with climate change acting as a moderate force against forest health conditions. Satellite-derived NDVI data pointed to a little vegetation density increase under ongoing land use stress which amounted to a value range of -0.48 to 0.77 in 1995 then decreased to 0.58 in 2004 and 0.57 in 2014 and rose to 0.61 by 2024. According to research findings, Kipkunurr Forest is under a lot of environmental stress due to factors like climate fluctuation, unclear boundaries, high reliance on forest resources, and agricultural growth. Due to human and climatic stresses, persistent forest degradation continues, especially close to forest boundaries, despite modest advances in recent years in forest cover and vegetation health. The study recommends that reforestation, defined boundaries, controlled grazing, and less dependence on forest- based fuel be implemented by the Kenya Forest Service in collaboration with the County Government and local communities as components of integrated solutions necessary for effective forest conservation. 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z http://41.89.164.27:8080/xmlui/handle/123456789/2737 FACTORS INFLUENCING RIVER DISCHARGE IN MOIBEN RIVER CATCHMENT, KENYA KOECH, MERCY This study examines the factors influencing river discharge in the Moiben River catchment, Kenya by looking at the shifts in the trends of river discharge, the changes that are associated with the changes in land uses and the socio-economic influences from the period 1995 to 2024.Some of the environmental and socio-economic changes over the period are farm land expansion, deforestation, and increasing water needs of the people. These shifts have raised concerns about fluctuating river discharge, water scarcity and the sustainability of available water for both the people and ecological needs. Kenya is among the water- deficient nation with a yearly per capita water supply being less than 1000 m3; therefore, its water sources needs conservation. Most of the water needs in the Kenyan watersheds are influenced by the human activities around these watersheds. In the case of the Moiben River catchment, discharge fluctuations, declining water levels, and water shortages have been observed but limited research has been conducted to investigate the exact reasons behind the declining and fluctuating river discharge. The primary objective of the study is to assess the key factors influencing river discharge in this area, which is important for local water supply and resource governance. The study utilized GIS-based methods and satellite images to analyze the changing LULC, alongside data from hydrological data such as river discharge and rainfall records. Household surveys and key informant interviews assessed socio-economic factors influencing discharge patterns. Statistical and geospatial techniques were used to establish relationships among these factors, and also hydrological modelling using HEC-HMS was utilized to simulate the peak discharge over the period. The findings revealed fluctuations in river discharge, with a slight but statistically insignificant upward trend at p < 0.05 (Qt = 0.8534t + 112.96, R2=0.0221, p=0.530). Wet season discharge (1.25±0.12 m3/s) was higher than the dry season (1.07±0.41 m3/s). LULC analysis showed cropland expansion (51.48% to 77.67%) and forest cover slightly increased from (30.53% to 31.22%), while rangeland and grassland have declined. Temperature rose significantly (r= 0.926, p= 0.074), while rainfall was moderate (r= 0.751, p= 0.249). Cropland (r= 0.922, p= 0.078) and built area (r= 0.914, p= 0.086) increased with time. River discharge had positive correlations with forest cover (r= 0.964, p= 0.036) and rangeland (r= 0.983, p= 0.017) changes and the peak discharge was 87.9m3/s in a 30-year return period. The results will inform sustainable water resource management and sustainable land use planning measures, providing valuable insights benefiting policymakers, conservation agencies, and local communities to mitigate the implications of the changing climate and land uses on river discharge through practices such as reforestation, adoption of water-efficient irrigation methods, protection of riparian zones, and promotion of sustainable land management techniques. The findings from this research will contribute to improving water conservation and enhancing resilience for this region. 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z http://41.89.164.27:8080/xmlui/handle/123456789/2730 MODELING LAND DEGRADATION FOR CONSERVATION PLANNING IN KALEHE TERRITORY, EASTERN D.R. CONGO NACISHALI, NTERANYA Jean The Eastern D.R. Congo is experiencing land degradation resulting from unsustainable land use which prevent the achievement of the land degradation neutrality in this region. This thesis aims to model the land degradation (LD) for conservation planning of natural resources in this region by using the Kalehe territory as a case study. Based on the system theory, a mixed approach combining field surveys, GIS, and remote sensing techniques was adopted. The geospatial data were used to assess the LULC changes, their implications on land productivity (LP), ecosystem service value (ESV), and soil erosion dynamics. Furthermore, a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) based model was developed to assess the land degradation vulnerability (LDV). The results of these geospatial analyses were triangulated with community perception data to identify the DPSIR (Drivers-Pressures-State-Impacts-Responses) indicators toward the LD management. By analyzing the LULC changes from 1987 to 2020 using the Landsat images and forecasting the future LULC for 2030-2070 through Markov modelling, the study identifies trends of increasing built-up, shrub land, and cropland at the expense of forestland, grassland and wetland. These changes contributed to 34.17% of land cover degradation over the last three decades. The analysis of LP dynamics through the linear trend analysis of NDVI time series data reveals that 31.25% of the territory has experienced a decrease in LP. The assessment matrix was used to link the perceived ESV and the LULC categories. Through this approach, it was demonstrated that the potential supply of ecosystem services decreased in 28.44% of the land over the 1987- 2020 period. The assessment of soil erosion dynamics through the RUSLE model indicated that the mean annual soil loss has increased over time from 32.08 t/ha/year in 1987 to 44.35 t/ha/year in 2020. Under the current LULC trend, the annual soil loss is projected to increase to 46.42 t/ha/year by 2030, 46.79 t/ha/year by 2050, and 48.38 t/ha/year by 2070. The adoption of conservation practices would result in the reduction of the current erosion rate by 86.56%, 62.28%, 54.05%, and 11.61% for bench-based terracing, agroforestry, strip cropping, and contouring, respectively. Moreover, the LD dynamic is influenced by the landscape characteristics since the decrease of forestland, and patch’s shape complexity, the increase of patch’s isolation, landscape heterogeneity, and fragmentation positively influenced the soil erosion dynamics. Hence, the need for land consolidation, connectivity and forest conservation during the future land use planning. This study also demonstrated that the LDV model based on MCDA can be used to predict the occurrence of physical LD processes in eastern DR Congo with an accuracy of 77.82%. Thus, it can be supplemented with the outcomes of land capability (LC) analysis for restoration planning and adaptive land use planning to reduce the LDV. To address the challenges of LD, this study proposes a conceptual model of LD management and a conservation action plan including the sustainable land use according to LC, implementation of conservations practices, environmental education, and improvement of community livelihoods. 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z http://41.89.164.27:8080/xmlui/handle/123456789/2728 FACTORS INFLUENCING RIVER DISCHARGE IN MOIBEN RIVER CATCHMENT, KENYA KOECH, MERCY This study examines the factors influencing river discharge in the Moiben River catchment, Kenya by looking at the shifts in the trends of river discharge, the changes that are associated with the changes in land uses and the socio-economic influences from the period 1995 to 2024.Some of the environmental and socio-economic changes over the period are farm land expansion, deforestation, and increasing water needs of the people. These shifts have raised concerns about fluctuating river discharge, water scarcity and the sustainability of available water for both the people and ecological needs. Kenya is among the water- deficient nation with a yearly per capita water supply being less than 1000 m3; therefore, its water sources needs conservation. Most of the water needs in the Kenyan watersheds are influenced by the human activities around these watersheds. In the case of the Moiben River catchment, discharge fluctuations, declining water levels, and water shortages have been observed but limited research has been conducted to investigate the exact reasons behind the declining and fluctuating river discharge. The primary objective of the study is to assess the key factors influencing river discharge in this area, which is important for local water supply and resource governance. The study utilized GIS-based methods and satellite images to analyze the changing LULC, alongside data from hydrological data such as river discharge and rainfall records. Household surveys and key informant interviews assessed socio-economic factors influencing discharge patterns. Statistical and geospatial techniques were used to establish relationships among these factors, and also hydrological modelling using HEC-HMS was utilized to simulate the peak discharge over the period. The findings revealed fluctuations in river discharge, with a slight but statistically insignificant upward trend at p < 0.05 (Qt = 0.8534t + 112.96, R2=0.0221, p=0.530). Wet season discharge (1.25±0.12 m3/s) was higher than the dry season (1.07±0.41 m3/s). LULC analysis showed cropland expansion (51.48% to 77.67%) and forest cover slightly increased from (30.53% to 31.22%), while rangeland and grassland have declined. Temperature rose significantly (r= 0.926, p= 0.074), while rainfall was moderate (r= 0.751, p= 0.249). Cropland (r= 0.922, p= 0.078) and built area (r= 0.914, p= 0.086) increased with time. River discharge had positive correlations with forest cover (r= 0.964, p= 0.036) and rangeland (r= 0.983, p= 0.017) changes and the peak discharge was 87.9m3/s in a 30-year return period. The results will inform sustainable water resource management and sustainable land use planning measures, providing valuable insights benefiting policymakers, conservation agencies, and local communities to mitigate the implications of the changing climate and land uses on river discharge through practices such as reforestation, adoption of water-efficient irrigation methods, protection of riparian zones, and promotion of sustainable land management techniques. The findings from this research will contribute to improving water conservation and enhancing resilience for this region. 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z http://41.89.164.27:8080/xmlui/handle/123456789/2720 IMPACTS OF LAND USE AND LAND COVER CHANGE ON MOIBEN RIVER FLOW PATTERNS ROTICH, FELIX Land Use and Land Cover Change (LULCC) is a key driver of hydrological alterations in river basins, with profound implications for sustainable watershed management and environmental planning. This study examined the impacts of LULCC on river flow patterns in the Moiben River Watershed, a critical tributary in Kenya’s Cherangany water tower that supports domestic, agricultural, and urban water needs, particularly for Eldoret City. Using a combination of remote sensing, hydrological modeling, and future scenario analysis, the research provides insights essential for integrated watershed planning and policy development. LULC maps for 1990, 2005, and 2021 were developed using Landsat imagery, and future (2055) scenarios were projected using the CA-Markov model in IDRISI Selva. Hydrological simulations were performed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), with climate data from global datasets downscaled using MarkSim DSSAT under the RCP6.0 scenario. Model calibration yielded NSE, R2 and PBIAS values of 0.73, 0.62 and -14.30% respectively whereas model validation yielded values of 0.882, 0.916 and 10.34% in the same order; indicating good model performance. Results show a 78.7% expansion in agricultural land over the study period, with corresponding declines in forest, grassland, and wetland areas. River flow simulations under alternative LULC scenarios revealed seasonal variations, where partial reforestation of agricultural land significantly improved low-season baseflows. Projections for 2055 suggest pronounced dry-season flow reductions, especially from January to June, with a peak in August and a sharp decline toward December. A paired-sample t-test confirmed statistically significant differences in monthly flows between the baseline (2010–2018) and projected (2051– 2059) periods (p < 0.000). Key informant interviews highlighted climate change and weak enforcement of land use regulations as critical emerging challenges. The findings underscore the need for scenario-based watershed planning, improved land governance, and adaptive policies that integrate climate and land use dynamics. This research contributes to the broader discourse on sustainable water resource management by providing actionable evidence to inform local and regional planning frameworks. Integrating land cover monitoring with hydrological modeling presents a viable path toward resilient environmental planning, particularly in data-scarce, climate-vulnerable regions like Kenya. 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z http://41.89.164.27:8080/xmlui/handle/123456789/2713 MODELING HABITAT SUITABILITY FOR AFRICAN ELEPHANTS (Loxodonta africana) AND THEIR PREFERRED FORAGE IN NASALOT-SOUTH TURKANA-KERIO VALLEY ECOSYSTEM, KENYA KIPKOSGEI, LYNN Understanding the environmental drivers of habitat suitability for African elephants and their preferred forage plants is critical for conservation, particularly under climate change. This study focused on the Nasalot–South Turkana–Kerio Valley ecosystem in Kenya, aiming to model the current and future spatial distribution and abundance of suitable habitats for African elephants and their preferred forage plants. It also analyzed key environmental factors influencing habitat distribution and evaluated the impacts of climate change under Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSP) 245 and SSP585 scenarios for 2041–2060 and 2081–2100-time horizons, using the Canadian Earth System Model Version 2 (CanESM2) model from Sixth Phase of the Coupled model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Elephant occurrence data were sourced from previous surveys, while preferred forage plant data were systematically collected along 1 km-spaced line transects. Data on climate, topography, vegetation, soil, distance layers, and Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) were obtained from global databases, including World Climate (WorldClim), United States Geological Survey (USGS), Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer Global Digital Elevation Model (ASTER GDEM), HydroSHEDS, and OpenStreetMap. A Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model was employed using spatially independent occurrence data, non-correlated environmental variables, linear and quadratic feature combinations, and regularization multipliers of 1 and 3.5 for elephants and their preferred forage plants, respectively. Model performance was evaluated using the Area Under the Curve (AUC) of the Receiver Operator Curve (ROC) curve. Both models showed strong predictive performance, with mean AUC values of 0.868 ± 0.006 for elephants and 0.883 ± 0.007 for their preferred forage plants. Results indicated that African elephants and their preferred forage plants are highly susceptible to climate change, with habitat suitability and abundance exhibiting notable spatial variability. At present, suitable habitats are limited in extent, with low-suitability areas dominating central regions and highly suitable zones largely restricted to the south. Forage species exhibit similarly low habitat abundance, particularly across central and northern areas. Projections under both SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios indicate a substantial decline in the abundance of suitable habitats, with a pronounced shift toward unsuitability, especially in northern regions, including key protected areas such as Nasalot and South Turkana. Jackknife tests identified precipitation of the coldest quarter (62.5%) and LULC (14.6%) as the main factors influencing elephant habitat suitability, while precipitation seasonality, precipitation of the driest quarter, elevation, and LULC were the primary drivers for forage plant suitability. Climate change was projected to threaten the distribution and survival of both elephants and their forage plants, with suitability shifts varying by scenario and timeframe. These findings highlight the need for adaptive management strategies that incorporate future climate projections to safeguard elephant populations and their forage resources in this vulnerable dryland ecosystem. 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z