Climate Shocks and Food Security: Community Perceptions of Floods and Droughts in Kenya’s Lower Nyando Basin

Abstract

Floods and droughts have intensified across Sub-Saharan Africa, undermining food security and rural livelihoods. In Kenya’s Lower Nyando Basin (LNB), where households depend primarily on rain-fed agriculture and fishing, these climatic shocks are recurrent and highly disruptive. This study examined community perceptions of floods and droughts and their implications for food security using a mixed-methods design that combined a household survey of 378 respondents with 12 key informant interviews and 10 focus group discussions. Quantitative analyses employed correlation and regression models, while qualitative data provided contextual insights into household coping mechanisms. The results indicated that communities perceived both floods (84.7%) and droughts (81.6%) to have increased in frequency and intensity over the past two decades. Farming, the main livelihood and income source (39.6%), was the most vulnerable to climatic shocks. Food security outcomes were severely compromised: 77.5% of households reported food inadequacy during droughts and 56.9% during floods, with shortages lasting more than four months annually for nearly two-thirds of respondents. The Household Food Insecurity Access Scale (HFIAS) further confirmed high levels of deprivation, with households frequently reducing meal frequency, consuming less-preferred foods, or going entire days without eating. Regression models showed that both floods and droughts had significant associations with food adequacy (p < 0.05), although the explanatory power was modest (R2 = 0.1655 for droughts; R2 = 0.1144 for floods). The study concluded that food insecurity in the LNB was cyclical and chronic, directly linked to climate shocks. It

recommended investments in small-scale irrigation and drainage, climate- smart agriculture, improved post-harvest storage, livelihood diversification,

and gender-responsive social protection to build resilience in vulnerable floodplain ecosystems.