ASSESSMENT OF THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND LAND USE CHANGES ON KIPKUNURR FOREST AND ITS SURROUNDINGS, ELGEYO MARAKWET COUNTY, KENYA

Abstract

Globally, the combined impacts of climate change and land use alterations have accelerated forest degradation, disrupting ecological balance and contributing to biodiversity loss.The Kipkunurr Forest region and its surroundings in Elgeyo Marakwet County are undergoing significant environmental transformation brought about by climate fluctuations and landscape modifications of land use/land cover (LULC). The reduction of forest cover caused by these changes transforms ecosystem operations and negatively impacts biodiversity, water resources, and local livelihoods. The goal of the study was to assess the effects of climate change and land use/land cover changes on Kipkunurr Forest and its surroundings. The study specifically sought to analyze the spatio-temporal changes in LULC from 1995 to 2024; to evaluate forest health using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) over the same period; to assess temperature and rainfall variability between 1994 and 2024; and to establish the relationships between climate change, LULC changes, and forest health. This research adopted a descriptive research design, integrating remote sensing and GIS analysis, climate data assessment, household surveys, and Key Informant Interviews (KIIs) to comprehensively examine land use changes, climatic trends, and their implications on forest conservation. Landsat images were used for land use and land cover analysis and NDVI calculation and meteorological station climate data for analysis of temperature and rainfall. The study relied on data from 382 households selected for interviews, five key informant interviews, including a Forester, four forest rangers, and a NEMA official along with local communities to examine LULC change factors and climate change. The analysis reveals significant changes in land use and land cover (LULC), with forest cover declining from 57.45% in 1995 to 35.06% in 2004, before slightly increasing to 36.98% by 2024. Climate data analysis for the period 1994 to 2024 reveals a gradual increase in mean annual temperature from approximately 20.2 °C to 20.8 °C. Although annual rainfall exhibited notable interannual variability, an overall increasing trend was observed, rising from around 1,100 mm to over 1,350 mm by 2024. The major drivers of land use and land cover transformation consisted of agricultural growth, population growth, logging and resource extraction with climate change acting as a moderate force against forest health conditions. Satellite-derived NDVI data pointed to a little vegetation density increase under ongoing land use stress which amounted to a value range of -0.48 to 0.77 in 1995 then decreased to 0.58 in 2004 and 0.57 in 2014 and rose to 0.61 by 2024. According to research findings, Kipkunurr Forest is under a lot of environmental stress due to factors like climate fluctuation, unclear boundaries, high reliance on forest resources, and agricultural growth. Due to human and climatic stresses, persistent forest degradation continues, especially close to forest boundaries, despite modest advances in recent years in forest cover and vegetation health. The study recommends that reforestation, defined boundaries, controlled grazing, and less dependence on forest- based fuel be implemented by the Kenya Forest Service in collaboration with the County Government and local communities as components of integrated solutions necessary for effective forest conservation.