Enabling Conditions for Improved Use of Seasonal Climate Forecast in Arid and Semi-Arid Baringo County—Kenya

Abstract

The use of seasonal climate forecasts can inform implementation of planned adaptation strategies to stabilize pastoral livestock assets in drought prone agro ecological zones. The main objective of this study was to assess use of seasonal climate forecasts as strategies for securing pastoralists assets in arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs) of Baringo County. The study used five (5) study locations that were purposively picked to ensure that they fall within the ASAL agro-ecological zones, LM5 and IL6. The total sampled households from the five locations was 221. The study used data from household survey to establish barriers to use of seasonal climate forecasts, use of traditional climate information and enabling conditions. Mean comparisons and frequencies of ratings were generated to ascertain the use of traditional climate information among the respondents. Sensitivity analysis was useful in identifying the most significant barriers to uptake of seasonal climate forecasts and the best and most significant enabling conditions/institutions to the access and usage of climate forecasts. The study established that majority (72.4%) of the respondents relied on traditional climate forecast methods than scientific methods in decision-making. The factors with greater influence on uptake of seasonal climate forecast information were lack of information, access, diversified sources of income and insecurity/conflicts, illiteracy and culture. The institutions with large influence were knowledge dissemination linked to radio and extension services and local climate information. The study recommends increased investments in strengthening and equipping human resource capacities of the pastoral community, local weather stations and extension services to foster uptake of scientific climate information to help reduce vulnerability to drought events in the arid and semi-arid lands