ANALYSING THE POTENTIAL OF CARBON FARMING FOR INCOME IMPROVEMENT AND CLIMATE RESILIENCE AMONG SMALLHOLDER FARMERS IN BARINGO COUNTY, KENYA.

Abstract

Smallholder farmers in Kenya face the dual challenge of declining soil fertility and increasing vulnerability to climate change, both of which constrain agricultural productivity and household income. However, sustainable carbon farming presents an opportunity to enhance income generation through carbon trade while improving household incomes. Despite its potential, limited awareness and access to climate information hinder its full realization. This study addressed this practical problem by quantitatively examining how socio-economic factor influencing climate information for carbon farming, potential of agroforestry in generating carbon incomes, efficiency of water harvesting and management practices towards drought resilience, effect of minimal land tillage for better crop productivity and improved household livelihoods influence carbon-farming among smallholder farmers in Eldama Ravine and Baringo Central Sub- counties, Baringo county, Kenya. The study adopted a correlation design and utilized a mixed-methods approach combining structured household surveys (n = 374), field observations, and key-informant interviews. Quantitative data were analyzed using multiple linear regression with heteroskedasticity standard errors, supported by descriptive and diagnostic tests for classical OLS assumptions. The dependent variable Carbon Farming was constructed from four measurable indicators: access to climate information, perceived carbon income, efficiency of water harvesting and management practices towards drought resilience, and effect of minimal land tillage for better crop productivity and improved household livelihoods. Empirical results demonstrated strong model performance and significant predictive capacity across all objective-specific models. The pooled regression model achieved an adjusted R² = 0.608 and F = 189.875 (p = 0.000), confirming that approximately 61% of variation in carbon-farming could be explained by the combined effects of the independent variables. Socio-economic variables such as Gender (β = 0.014, p = 0.048), (β = 0.021, p = 0.058), and household income (β = 0.062, p = 0.007) emerged as significant determinants of climate information for carbon farming, suggesting that human capital and resource endowments substantially shape farmers’ ability to adopt and sustain carbon-farming. Agroforestry, Indigenous drought tolerant agroforestry trees, Exotic drought tolerant agroforestry trees, Fruit farming and Fodder trees statistically significantly predicted Carbon incomes with R 2 = 0.545, while Water harvesting and management practices, Spring restoration and protection, Riparian restoration and protection, and Roof water harvesting statistically . R 2 = 0.681, p-values for all variable pairs exceed 0.05 indicating that the assumption of homoscedasticity was met. These findings confirm that practical, low-cost interventions yield measurable carbon and productivity benefits. The aggregated analysis further estimated an average perceived carbon income of 56.98 (KSh. 7,407.4) per month, underscoring the economic potential of verified carbon-credit participation for rural livelihoods. In conclusion, carbon farming offers a viable income-generating opportunity for smallholder farmers in Baringo County, but its success depends on improved climate information access and targeted awareness efforts. The study recommends capacity building on agroforestry and carbon farming, distribution of tree seedlings to farmers, and sensitization programs on carbon trading. Additionally, gender-sensitive approaches should be integrated into agricultural extension services to bridge the gender gap in climate information access and empower women in decision-making. Strengthening climate information dissemination channels and enhancing extension services will be crucial in optimizing the benefits of carbon farming and improving household incomes in the region.